Two 2022 United States Senate elections in California were held concurrently on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of California. There were two ballot items for the same Class 3 seat: a special election to fill the seat for the final weeks of the 117th United States Congress (ending on January 3, 2023), and a general election for a full term (beginning on the same day), starting in the 118th United States Congress.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Alex Padilla was appointed in 2021 by Governor Gavin Newsom to fill the vacancy created by Kamala Harris's election to the vice presidency in 2020, and he sought a full term.[1][2] A jungle primary for each of the terms took place on June 7.[3] The top two candidates in each primary, regardless of party, advanced to the special and regular general elections in November. With his advancement out of the primary, Mark P. Meuser (/ˈmɔɪʒər/ MOY-zhər) became the first Republican since 2012 to advance to the general election, as both the 2016 and 2018 Senate elections solely featured Democrats as the top two candidates. This race was a rematch between the two, as both had previously run for the secretary of state in 2018. Padilla easily won both elections.[4] Padilla became the first Latino elected to the U.S. Senate from California, and the first male elected to the Senate from California since Pete Wilson was re-elected in 1988 and the first male elected to the Class 3 Senate seat from California since Alan Cranston was re-elected in 1986.[5] This was the first time since 1988 where both major party nominees for a Senate seat in California were men and was also the first time where both major party nominees for the Class 3 Senate seat in California were men since 1986.

This was the best performance for a Republican candidate in a California Senate election since 2010.

Candidates

Democratic Party

Advanced to general

Eliminated in primary

  • Akinyemi Agbede, mathematician[7]
  • Dan O'Dowd, founder and president of Green Hills Software and candidate for U.S. Senate in 1994[8]
  • Douglas Howard Pierce, businessman and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018[7]
  • Obaidul Huq Pirjada, attorney[7]
  • Timothy J. Ursich, doctor[7]

Declined

Republican Party

Advanced to general

  • Mark P. Meuser, attorney and candidate for California Secretary of State in 2018[7]

Eliminated in primary

  • James P. Bradley, businessman, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018, and candidate for California's 33rd congressional district in 2020[7]
  • Jon Elist, small business owner[7]
  • Myron L. Hall, physician[7]
  • Sarah Sun Liew, entrepreneur[7]
  • Robert George Lucero Jr., consultant[7]
  • Enrique Petris, businessman[7]
  • Chuck Smith, retired law enforcement officer[7]
  • Carlos Guillermo Tapia, businessman[7]
  • Cordie Williams, marine veteran and doctor[7]
  • Lijun Zhou, businesswoman (write-in, general election only)[11]

Withdrawn

Green Party

Eliminated in primary

Peace and Freedom Party

Eliminated in primary

No party preference

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

James P. Bradley (R)
Individuals
Mark Meuser (R)
Newspapers
Organizations
Alex Padilla (D)
U.S. Senators
Statewide officials
U.S. Representatives
Organizations
Newspapers
Stonewall Democrats clubs
  • Stonewall Democrats[37]
  • Alice B. Toklas LGBT Democratic Club (San Francisco)[38]
  • East Bay Stonewall Democratic Club (Berkeley)[39]
  • Fresno Stonewall Democrats[40]
  • Harvey Milk LGBT Democratic Club (San Francisco)[41]
  • San Diego Democrats for Equality[42]
John Parker (P&F)

Primary elections

Campaign

Incumbent senator Alex Padilla was appointed to the job in January 2021 following Kamala Harris's election to the office of Vice President of the United States.[43] Following his appointment, Padilla quickly began to focus on his 2022 election campaign, as the fact that he has not been elected to the position means that he has a relatively low profile.[9] Padilla's election strategy focused on advocating for progressive policies and building ties with left-wing organizations that had a poor relationship with California's other Senator, Dianne Feinstein.[9][44] The potential Democratic opponent to Padilla considered most likely to join the race was U.S. Representative Ro Khanna, a staunchly left-wing Democrat who rose to prominence as the co-chair of the Bernie Sanders 2020 presidential campaign, and who had a loyal base of support from California's Asian-American and Pacific Islander communities.[9][10] On August 9, 2021, Khanna announced that he would be endorsing Padilla for election, which was viewed as likely ending any possibility that Padilla would face a serious Democratic opponent.[45] It was noted by the San Francisco Chronicle that it was considered unlikely that Padilla would face any serious Republican opponent, as California's heavily Democratic lean caused potentially strong candidates, such as U.S. Representatives Mike Garcia and Young Kim, to prefer to remain in their positions rather than launch a long-shot Senate run.[46]

In April 2022, billionaire businessman Dan O'Dowd entered the race, launching a $650,000 ad campaign.[8] O'Dowd's goal with this ad buy, and with entering the race in the first place, was to "make computers safe for humanity"[47][48] and draw the attention of the public and politicians to the dangers of Tesla's unfinished Full Self-Driving software being rolled out to 100,000 cars on public roads.[49]

Special election blanket primary

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Daphne
Bradford
(NPP)
James
Bradley
(R)
Jon
Elist
(R)
Myron
Hall
(R)
Mark
Meuser
(R)
Dan
O'Dowd
(D)
Alex
Padilla
(D)
Timothy
Ursich Jr.
(D)
Undecided
Berkeley IGSMay 24–31, 20223,438 (LV)± 2.2%1%7%5%2%14%3%44%2%21%
SurveyUSAMay 13–15, 2022709 (LV)± 4.5%1%8%7%3%11%6%40%2%22%

Results

Results by county
  Padilla
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Meuser
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
Special election blanket primary results[50]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticAlex Padilla (incumbent) 3,740,582 55.0
RepublicanMark P. Meuser 1,503,480 22.1
RepublicanJames P. Bradley472,0526.9
RepublicanJon Elist403,7225.9
DemocraticTimothy J. Ursich226,4473.3
DemocraticDan O'Dowd191,5312.8
RepublicanMyron L. Hall143,0382.1
No party preferenceDaphne Bradford112,1911.6
Peace and FreedomJohn Parker (write-in)9,9510.1
No party preferenceIrene Ratliff (write-in)120.0
Total votes6,803,006 100.0

Regular election blanket primary

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
(D) Akinyemi Agbede
(I) Daphne Bradford
(R) James Bradley
(G) James Conn
(R) Jon Elist
(G) Pamela Elizondo
(I) Eleanor Garcia
(I) Don Grundmann
(R) Myron Hall
(I) Deon Jenkins
(R) Sarah Sun Liew
(R) Robert Lucero Jr.
(R) Mark Meuser
(D) Dan O'Dowd
(D) Alex Padilla
(PF) John Parker
(R) Enrique Petris
(D) Douglas Pierce
(D) Obaidul Huq Pirjada
(R) Chuck Smith
(R) Carlos Tapia
(D) Timothy Ursich Jr.
(R) Cordie Williams
Undecided
Berkeley IGSMay 24–31, 20223,438 (LV)± 2.2%1%0%3%0%2%1%0%0%1%0%1%0%11%1%42%1%0%1%1%6%1%1%2%22%
SurveyUSAMay 13–15, 2022709 (LV)± 4.5%2%0%9%1%4%0%0%0%3%0%3%2%4%1%36%0%1%2%2%2%1%1%1%24%

Results

Results by county
  Padilla
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Meuser
  •   20–30%
Regular election blanket primary results[50]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticAlex Padilla (incumbent) 3,725,544 54.1
RepublicanMark P. Meuser 1,028,374 14.9
RepublicanCordie Williams474,3216.9
RepublicanJon Elist289,7164.2
RepublicanChuck Smith266,7663.9
RepublicanJames P. Bradley235,7883.4
DemocraticDouglas Howard Pierce116,7711.7
Peace and FreedomJohn Parker105,4771.5
RepublicanSarah Sun Liew76,9941.1
DemocraticDan O'Dowd74,9161.1
DemocraticAkinyemi Agbede70,9711.0
RepublicanMyron L. Hall66,1611.0
DemocraticTimothy J. Ursich58,3480.8
RepublicanRobert George Lucero Jr.53,3980.8
GreenJames "Henk" Conn35,9830.5
No party preferenceEleanor Garcia[c]34,6250.5
RepublicanCarlos Guillermo Tapia33,8700.5
GreenPamela Elizondo31,9810.5
RepublicanEnrique Petris31,8830.5
DemocraticObaidul Huq Pirjada27,8890.4
No party preferenceDaphne Bradford26,9000.4
No party preferenceDon J. Grundmann[d]10,1810.1
No party preferenceDeon D. Jenkins6,9360.1
No party preferenceMark A. Ruzon (write-in)2060.0
RepublicanLijun Zhou (write-in)580.0
No party preferenceIrene Ratliff (write-in)70.0
No party preferenceMarc Alexander Roth (write-in)10.0
Total votes6,884,065 100.0

General elections

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[53]Solid DMarch 4, 2022
Inside Elections[54]Solid DApril 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[55]Safe DMarch 1, 2022
Politico[56]Solid DApril 1, 2022
RCP[57]Safe DFebruary 24, 2022
Fox News[58]Solid DMay 12, 2022
DDHQ[59]Solid DJuly 20, 2022
538[60]Solid DJune 30, 2022
The Economist[61]Safe DSeptember 7, 2022

Polling

Special election
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Alex
Padilla (D)
Mark
Meuser (R)
Undecided
Research Co.November 4–6, 2022450 (LV)± 4.6%59%35%6%
SurveyUSAOctober 7–10, 20221,013 (LV)± 4.4%56%34%10%
Regular election
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Alex
Padilla (D)
Mark
Meuser (R)
Undecided
Research Co.November 4–6, 2022450 (LV)± 4.6%60%35%5%
USCOctober 30 – November 2, 2022802 (RV)± 3.5%63%37%
ActiVoteJuly 22 – October 20, 2022208 (LV)± 7.0%65%35%
SurveyUSAOctober 7–10, 20221,013 (LV)± 4.4%56%34%11%

Results

2022 United States Senate special election in California[62]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticAlex Padilla (incumbent) 6,559,303 60.89% N/A
RepublicanMark Meuser4,212,44639.11%N/A
Total votes10,771,749 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold
2022 United States Senate election in California[62]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticAlex Padilla (incumbent) 6,621,616 61.06% N/A
RepublicanMark Meuser4,222,02538.94%N/A
Total votes10,843,641 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

By county

By county
CountyAlex Padilla
Democratic
Mark Meuser
Republican
MarginTotal
votes
#%#%#%
Alameda383,30080.2694,28319.74289,01760.52477,583
Alpine37260.7824039.2213221.56612
Amador6,52235.3711,91764.63-5,395-29.2618,439
Butte33,46746.7138,18353.29-4,716-6.5871,650
Calaveras7,64936.3113,41563.69-5,766-27.3821,064
Colusa1,80733.113,65166.89-1,844-33.785,458
Contra Costa267,33169.72116,12230.28151,20939.44383,453
Del Norte3,40041.204,85258.80-1,452-17.608,252
El Dorado36,66941.8151,02558.19-14,356-16.3887,694
Fresno100,96347.00113,84553.00-12,882-10.16214,808
Glenn2,23428.525,60071.48-4,070-51.327,930
Humboldt30,61264.1717,09635.8313,51628.3447,708
Imperial17,77459.8611,91940.145,85519.7229,693
Inyo3,48847.353,87852.65-390-5.307,366
Kern73,77939.41113,42860.59-39,649-21.18188,703
Kings10,06737.8516,53362.15-6,466-24.3026,600
Lake10,13850.939,76949.073691.8619,907
Lassen1,88820.827,18179.18-5,293-58.369,069
Los Angeles1,670,30670.00715,91330.00954,39340.002,386,219
Madera14,01838.3722,51461.63-8,496-23.2636,532
Marin95,49681.0522,32618.9573,17062.10117,822
Mariposa3,05039.344,70360.66-1,653-21.327,753
Mendocino19,74565.4910,40634.519,33930.9830,151
Merced26,75548.9627,89351.04-1,138-2.0854,648
Modoc80223.912,55276.09-1,750-52.183,354
Mono2,59457.401,92542.6066914.804,519
Monterey67,15366.3734,02633.6333,12732.74101,179
Napa32,65166.3616,54933.6416,10232.7249,200
Nevada27,89855.3822,47844.625,42010.7650,376
Orange479,49449.50489,18550.50-9,691-1.00968,679
Placer77,54043.05102,59756.95-25,057-13.90180,137
Plumas3,40539.795,15360.21-1,748-20.428,558
Riverside289,59949.40296,68750.60-7,088-1.20586,286
Sacramento283,11759.98188,92540.0294,19219.96472,042
San Benito11,01656.838,36843.172,64813.6619,384
San Bernardino218,49449.10226,47050.90-7,976-1.80444,964
San Diego586,28457.57432,02742.43154,25715.141,018,311
San Francisco254,75685.6542,69914.35212,05771.30297,455
San Joaquin90,28951.4985,07848.515,2112.98175,367
San Luis Obispo63,07653.3855,08746.627,9896.76118,163
San Mateo186,89176.3757,82523.63129,06652.74244,716
Santa Barbara82,25561.5751,33938.4330,91623.14133,594
Santa Clara383,15271.43153,24928.57229,90342.86536,401
Santa Cruz80,67577.9622,81022.0457,86555.92103,485
Shasta20,80530.8046,75069.20-25,945-38.4067,555
Sierra57237.0297362.98-401-25.961,545
Siskiyou6,89239.3910,60760.61-3,715-21.2217,499
Solano80,31761.9049,44338.1030,87423.80129,760
Sonoma143,19773.3751,98226.6391,21546.74195,179
Stanislaus57,86144.9770,79255.03-12,931-10.06128,653
Sutter9,79735.4717,82764.53-8,030-29.0627,624
Tehama5,67027.7214,78472.28-9,114-44.5620,454
Trinity2,01944.802,48855.20-469-10.404,507
Tulare35,21538.8855,35961.12-20,144-22.2490,574
Tuolumne8,93238.9214,01661.08-5,084-22.1622,948
Ventura155,23156.03121,82243.9733,40912.06277,053
Yolo46,09468.6821,02231.3225,07237.3667,116
Yuba7,04336.1512,43963.85-5,396-27.7019,482
Totals6,621,61661.064,222,02538.942,399,59122.1210,843,641

By congressional district

Padilla won 42 of 52 congressional districts in the regular election, including two that elected Republicans.[63]

DistrictPadillaMeuserRepresentative
1st36%64%Doug LaMalfa
2nd73%27%Jared Huffman
3rd46%54%Kevin Kiley
4th66%34%Mike Thompson
5th40%60%Tom McClintock
6th57%43%Ami Bera
7th66%34%Doris Matsui
8th75%25%John Garamendi
9th51%49%Josh Harder
10th66%34%Mark DeSaulnier
11th86%14%Nancy Pelosi
12th91%9%Barbara Lee
13th49%51%John Duarte
14th70%30%Eric Swalwell
15th77%23%Jackie Speier (117th Congress)
Kevin Mullin (118th Congress)
16th74%26%Anna Eshoo
17th71%29%Ro Khanna
18th68%32%Zoe Lofgren
19th67%33%Jimmy Panetta
20th32%68%Kevin McCarthy
21st53%47%Jim Costa
22nd51%49%David Valadao
23rd41%59%Jay Obernolte
24th61%39%Salud Carbajal
25th55%45%Raul Ruiz
26th55%45%Julia Brownley
27th51%49%Mike Garcia
28th65%35%Judy Chu
29th76%24%Tony Cárdenas
30th77%23%Adam Schiff
31st61%39%Grace Napolitano
32nd69%31%Brad Sherman
33rd57%43%Pete Aguilar
34th83%17%Jimmy Gomez
35th57%43%Norma Torres
36th69%31%Ted Lieu
37th86%14%Karen Bass (117th Congress)
Sydney Kamlager-Dove (118th Congress)
38th60%40%Linda Sánchez
39th56%44%Mark Takano
40th46%54%Young Kim
41st47%53%Ken Calvert
42nd69%31%Lucille Roybal-Allard (117th Congress)
Robert Garcia (118th Congress)
43rd80%20%Maxine Waters
44th72%28%Nanette Barragán
45th49%51%Michelle Steel
46th61%39%Lou Correa
47th51%49%Katie Porter
48th40%60%Darrell Issa
49th52%48%Mike Levin
50th63%37%Scott Peters
51st61%39%Sara Jacobs
52nd65%35%Juan Vargas

See also

Notes

  1. ^ In January 2021, Padilla was appointed by Governor Gavin Newsom to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of Senator Kamala Harris, who had elected Vice President of the United States.
  2. ^ a b c d Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Garcia is listed on the ballot as a "no party preference" candidate because the Socialist Workers Party did not have ballot access in California at the time the ballot was printed.[51]
  4. ^ Grundmann is listed on the ballot as a "no party preference" candidate because the Constitution Party did not have ballot access in California at the time the ballot was printed.[52]

References

  1. ^ Wilson, Reid (September 28, 2021). "California rule change means Padilla faces extra election". The Hill. Archived from the original on September 28, 2021. Retrieved September 28, 2021.
  2. ^ Willon, Phil; McGreevy, Patrick (December 22, 2020). "Alex Padilla becomes California's first Latino U.S. senator, replacing Kamala Harris". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved December 22, 2020.
  3. ^ "Statewide Direct Primary Election - June 7, 2022". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on December 23, 2020. Retrieved September 28, 2021.
  4. ^ "Alex Padilla makes history as first Latino elected to U.S. Senate from California". Los Angeles Times. November 9, 2022. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  5. ^ "Meet the history-makers of the 2022 midterm elections | CNN Politics". CNN. November 9, 2022.
  6. ^ Ting, Eric (December 23, 2020). "Alex Padilla and Shirley Weber will run in 2022. They'll likely have challengers". SF Gate.
  7. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t "Primary Election - June 7, 2022". Archived from the original on March 26, 2022. Retrieved March 26, 2022.
  8. ^ a b Cadelago, Christopher (April 16, 2022). "He wants to destroy Elon Musk. He could end up endangering the Dems' Senate plans". Politico. Archived from the original on April 16, 2022. Retrieved April 16, 2022.
  9. ^ a b c d Haberkorn, Jennifer (May 3, 2021). "Sen. Alex Padilla, just months into the job, has a year and a half to convince voters he should keep it". Los Angeles Times.
  10. ^ a b c Marinucci, Carla (August 9, 2021). "Khanna won't challenge Padilla for Senate, ends intraparty threat from left". Politico. Retrieved August 9, 2021.
  11. ^ a b c d "Official Certified List of Write-In Candidates - June 7, 2022" (PDF). California Secretary of State. May 27, 2022. Retrieved May 30, 2022.
  12. ^ "FILING FEC-1503114". fec.gov. March 8, 2021. Retrieved March 8, 2021.
  13. ^ Miller, Thaddeus (March 8, 2021). "Fresno native to challenge for a U.S. Senate seat, blasts Newsom. Can she win?". Fresno Bee.
  14. ^ Taub, David (December 17, 2021). "Heng Enters House Race Even as the Lines Keep Changing". GV Wire. Retrieved December 18, 2021.
  15. ^ "Yvonne For US Senate 2022". Yvonne For US Senate 2022. February 26, 2007. Retrieved June 3, 2022.
  16. ^ a b Winger, Richard (November 15, 2021). "Two California Ballot-Qualified Parties Will Run a Joint Campaign for Statewide Office in 2022".
  17. ^ Laurance, Jeremy (May 5, 2018). "Andrew Wakefield's MMR vaccine theory has been discredited for years, but he just won't go away". Independent.
  18. ^ "News-Press announces its election endorsements". newspress.com. October 25, 2022. Retrieved October 27, 2022.
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  22. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao Marinucci, Carla; Jeremy B. White; Graph Massara; Richard Tzul (April 20, 2021). "PADILLA launches 2022 reelection bid — PELOSI defends WATERS' remarks on CHAUVIN trial — CALIFORNIA giving up on climate ambitions? — GOP leaders want border meeting with HARRIS". Politico.
  23. ^ a b c d e f g h Marinucci, Carla (April 22, 2021). "NEWSOM declares drought emergency — CAITLYN JENNER's spotty voting record — Quake nightmare: the HOLLYWOOD FAULT — PELOSI's Floyd speech slammed". Politico.
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  25. ^ "Elections 2022". California Teachers Association.
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  27. ^ "Election Center". Equality California. Retrieved May 12, 2022.
  28. ^ "Endorsements". NARAL Pro-Choice California. Retrieved May 12, 2022.
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  42. ^ "2022 Endorsements". San Diego Democrats for Equality. Retrieved December 5, 2022.
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  44. ^ Garofoli, Joe (June 16, 2021). "Progressives fed up with Feinstein, want her to resign now". San Francisco Chronicle. Retrieved August 10, 2021.
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  47. ^ "About Dan O'Dowd - Dan O'Dowd for U.S. Senate".
  48. ^ Korosec, Kirsten (April 20, 2022). "Billionaire's Senate run focuses on banning 'self-driving' Tesla's". techcrunch.com.
  49. ^ Loveday, Steven (April 18, 2022). "Elon Musk Says Tesla's FSD Now Has over 100,000 Beta Testers". Insideevs.com.
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  51. ^ Stone, Betsey (February 7, 2022). "Socialist Workers Party conference launches 2022 California campaign". The Militant. Vol. 86, no. 5. Retrieved May 4, 2022.
  52. ^ "Political Body: Constitution Party of California" (PDF). Secretary of State of California. Sacramento. April 12, 2021. Retrieved May 4, 2022.
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  54. ^ "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
  55. ^ "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved January 28, 2021.
  56. ^ "California Senate Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
  57. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2022". RCP. January 10, 2022.
  58. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. May 12, 2022. Retrieved May 12, 2022.
  59. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. July 20, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
  60. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  61. ^ "Economist's 2022 Senate forecast". The Economist. September 7, 2022. Retrieved September 7, 2022.
  62. ^ a b "General Election - Statement of the Vote, November 8, 2022" (PDF). California Secretary of State. Retrieved December 15, 2022.
  63. ^ Results. docs.google.com (Report).

External links

Official campaign websites